Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

An cargo plane is being loaded with AI chips and military hardware on an airport tarmac with Dubai skyline and an oil rig in the background

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

BIS Reclassifies UAE to A:5: How a Gulf Pivot Rewires US Defense and Energy Export Architecture

On July 10, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security rewrote the rules governing US exports to the UAE, elevating the Gulf state to Country Group A:5, a tier previously reserved for formal treaty allies, and creating a new entity-specific approval framework that channels AI chips, military hardware, and oil-field equipment to approved Gulf institutions. The action formalizes a two-year strategic convergence linking the Iran campaign, a $1.4 trillion investment commitment, and the world's largest planned AI data center into a single regulatory instrument. No Gulf state has ever achieved this classification.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 25, 202611 MIN READ

Illustration of a large gold coin on a cloud, with smaller coins on clouds and abstract gold shapes against a dark background.

workspace_premiumPremium

Crypto

Bitcoin Breaks $65K as Soft PPI Ignites Cross-Asset Risk Rally

Bitcoin's breach of $65,000 on July 24 followed a 0.3% month-over-month drop in June PPI, the first such decline since August 2025. The move is a macro liquidity trade, not a crypto-native breakout, and a $225 million ETF reversal on July 23 shows the rally's fragility heading into the July 29 FOMC decision.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 20268 MIN READ

An electric fan on a wooden desk blows air, indicated by wavy lines, towards scattered papers, with a bright window behind.

Macro

June CPI and PPI Cool Together, Shifting Fed Rate Odds Ahead of July FOMC

June CPI fell to 3.5% and PPI dropped 0.3% MoM in the same week, pushing CME FedWatch hold probability to 66.3% ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Here is what the data says and what to watch next.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 20261 MIN READ

Aerial view looking down the expansive deck of a massive oil tanker sailing through a channel with rocky shorelines under a hazy sky.

Macro

Inflation Cools, Oil Spikes, Bitcoin Climbs: A Volatile Thursday

Oil climbed on Middle East supply fears while Bitcoin pushed above $65,000 on cooling inflation data. Here is what moved markets on Thursday and what to watch heading into next week's FOMC meeting.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 20262 MIN READ

Illustration showing a structure with a microchip, pouring a golden liquid via a pipe into an industrial factory and a hospital.

Equities

S&P 500 Gives Back Gains as Sector Rotation Accelerates

SPY closed Friday at $738.18, 2.9% below its July 21 all-time high, as soft inflation data triggered a rotation from tech into industrials and healthcare rather than a broad rally.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 20262 MIN READ

A stylized illustration of a golden lever mechanism positioned between two light blue pipes, with a bar chart below, all against a dark background.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

Fed's July FOMC Hold: What CPI and PPI Cooling Means for Markets

CME FedWatch puts the probability of an unchanged July 29 rate decision at 66.3%. The data behind that number is more complicated than it looks.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 20269 MIN READ

A large, rust-streaked oil tanker cruises on blue water with a rocky coastline in the background under an orange sky.

Commodities

Oil Surges, Gold Pulls Back: The Divergence Driving Commodities on July 24

Oil surged 5.9% after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire dead, while gold and silver pulled back on pre-FOMC positioning. Here is what each move means and what to watch next.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 20262 MIN READ

Aerial view of multiple large container ships navigating a narrow strait bordered by rocky coastlines under a hazy sunset.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Oil Surges 5.9% on Iran Ceasefire Collapse; Gold and Silver Pre-FOMC

Oil surged 5.9% to USO $139.49 after President Trump declared the June 18 Iran ceasefire dead, reigniting Strait of Hormuz supply disruption risk. Meanwhile gold and silver pulled back ahead of the FOMC. The divergence tells you exactly where each market's head is.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 24, 202610 MIN READ

A large gear, segmented into shiny silver, rusted metal, and golden sections, rotates against a blurred backdrop of modern city skyscrapers at dusk.

workspace_premiumPremium

Equities

Sector Rotation Accelerates: Mega-Cap Tech Selloff Reveals Hidden Breadth

SPY closed Friday at $738.18, 2.9% below its all-time high, as mega-cap tech sold off on Alphabet's $195-205B capex shock. James Nakamura analyzes the sector rotation, market internals, and the FOMC binary setting up the next major move.