
Fed Rate Markets Price 84.5% October Hold
Polymarket priced an October Fed hold at 84.5% on October 9, while the October 8 minutes said most officials expected another increase by year end.
Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Polymarket priced an October Fed hold at 84.5% on October 9, while the October 8 minutes said most officials expected another increase by year end.

The Port of Los Angeles had two ships at anchor on October 8, but on-dock rail containers averaged 5.1 days on terminal and 5,601 had waited at least nine days.

Initial claims fell to 197,000 in the week ending October 3, while continuing claims rose to 1.716 million for the week ending September 26. The split points to few new layoffs and a potentially slower return to work.

Sesterce's €10B-plus campus proposal starts at 200 MW, but funding, site control and grid delivery will decide whether that capacity reaches paying AI customers.

The Fed recorded a $4.8 billion August dip in revolving credit, while the average stated credit card rate remained 21.19%.

HUD’s seven-step manufactured housing plan opens a broader code-reform process, but offers no deadline or quantified supply target.

MMS operator reports show 62.89% of Gulf oil output shut in, a 1.28 million barrels a day outage, and the same storm also puts 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity at risk on top of sanctions-driven tightness near $100.

GlobalFoundries and TSMC disclosed a five-year $2 billion manufacturing deal, while production at the New York site is not expected to ramp until 2028.

Treasury designated 17 shadow fleet tankers under Operation Economic Outcast on Oct 8, cutting the ships that move Iranian crude, naphtha and fuel oil to Asian buyers and reinforcing the supply-side bid on oil near $100. A look at the vessels, the numbers and what to watch to the Nov 3 midterms.

Silver slid to its cheapest in two months on Thursday, and the Fed's Chris Waller told an Istanbul forum that more rate hikes are coming until inflation is back at 2 percent.

The White House says eleven industry partners committed $2.4 billion in compute credits and tools for federal science research, including $1 billion from NVIDIA.

Investors typed MRVL stock this week for one reason: Marvell just put some very large AI revenue numbers on its roadmap, and Wall Street raised its targets to match.