Research & Analysis

Warsh's Fed Split 9-3 Hawkish Ahead of July CPI Print

July CPI lands today as the swing data point for a Fed caught between a 9-3 hawkish FOMC split and the first payroll contraction in over a year. Here is the range of paths for Chair Warsh's committee.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $853.5M as BTC Holds Five-Week Range

Bitcoin ETFs Draw $853M as BTC Stays Range Bound

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $853.5 million over five sessions, nearly five times July's total, yet BTC remains locked in a $62,000 to $66,000 range as OTC selling offsets the demand.

July FOMC: Fed Held at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 Hawkish Split

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents. Core PCE and CPI remain well above target as gold and silver hit records.

Gold Nears $4,450, Silver $65 on Record Central Bank Buying

GLD holds near $400.96 and SLV near $58.55 after a sharp two-week breakout, with record central bank buying providing the floor ahead of Wednesday's CPI print.

Stocks Await CPI as Tech Slides, Energy Leads

Tuesday marked a second straight down session for tech as capital rotated into energy, utilities, and industrials ahead of today's CPI print.

Gold and Silver Break Out on Central Bank Buying, CPI Risk

GLD is up 7.2% and SLV 11.6% off early-August lows as record central bank gold buying meets a dovish Fed repricing, with Wednesday's CPI print the next swing factor for a crowded managed-money long book.

July CPI Preview: What Wall Street Expects Wednesday

July CPI consensus expects 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y headline, 0.2% core, versus June's 0.4% drop. Here is how rates, the dollar, and gold would react.

Energy Earnings Beat as Uranium Hits 17-Month High

Chevron and the oil majors posted their strongest quarter in years on Hormuz-driven crude strength, and uranium spot broke to a 17 month high. Here is what the earnings beat and the CCJ vs UEC setup mean for commodities positioning.

Gold at $4,417 as CFTC Positioning Data Lags a Two-Week Rally Into CPI

Gold spot hit a fresh record near $4,417/oz Tuesday, up 10.38% over the trailing month, but the last CFTC positioning read is a week stale. Here is what that gap means going into Wednesday's CPI print, plus the copper and oil setups riding alongside it.

Q2 Earnings Expose a Valuation Gap Between Growth Stories and Cash Flow

Q2 earnings season is splitting the market into two camps: high-multiple growth names facing valuation scrutiny even after beating estimates, and cash-rich, guidance-raising mid-caps getting rewarded with fresh highs. Energy's 4.66% day is the clearest sign that rotation is happening beneath a flat index tape.

September Fed Hike Odds Round-Trip From Zero to 63% on Warsh, Oil

September Fed hike odds swung from near zero right after the July jobs miss to 55-63% by August 10, as Chair Warsh's hawkish rhetoric and an oil-price spike tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions outweighed the labor data. Wednesday's CPI print decides which story wins.