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September Fed Hike Odds Round-Trip From Zero to 63% on Warsh, Oil

Sarah Chen
Sarah ChenSenior Macro Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published August 11, 20265 min read
A stylized seesaw balancing a golden drop on one side and a white oval on the other, with a blue cube above the fulcrum.
Warsh and oil prices tilt the scales towards a September Fed hike, outweighing labor data. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

September FOMC hike odds have made a round trip in ten trading days that should unsettle anyone still treating a single CME FedWatch print as a forecast. On August 7, the July jobs report knocked hike pricing toward zero within hours. By August 10, the same tracker sat at 55 to 63 percent, essentially back where it stood before the payrolls data ever printed. The labor market did not get stronger in the interim. What changed is who is talking and what oil is doing.

Key Takeaways September hike-probability trackers moved from near zero immediately after the August 7 jobs miss to 55 to 63 percent by August 10, per Motley Fool/Yahoo Finance (citing CME data) and Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor.…

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September Fed Hike Odds Jump to 63% on Warsh, Oil | MarketIntelLabs