Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Refinery distillation towers and pipework glowing at dusk with a tanker silhouette on the horizon

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Commodities

Ukraine's drones knocked out nearly a third of Russia's refining. Diesel just hit a record because of it.

While the headlines chase crude, Ukrainian long-range drones have cut Russian refinery runs to a 20-year low, about 30% below a year ago. Diesel cracks have more than tripled to $104 a barrel and US pump diesel is at an all-time high. Same story, one cause. Inside: the strike-by-strike tracker, the spreads, and what to watch next.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 20, 20265 MIN READ

Line chart of NYMEX ULSD diesel futures, last 90 days (USD/gal) on a dark background

Cost of Living

Diesel at $6.31: AAA All-Time Record Hits the Household Bill

Diesel set an all-time AAA record on Sep 16 while regular gasoline climbed more modestly; the household impact runs through freight and Northeast heating oil, not the pump alone.

Maya Reyes smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 20, 20267 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (%) on a dark background

Macro

The Weekend Brief: A Hiking Fed Meets a Soft Labor Market and a 5% Ten-Year

On the afternoon of September 16 the Federal Reserve raised the target range on its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, on a unanimous 12 to 0 vote (Federal Reserve, \u201cFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement,\u201d September 16, 2026).

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 20, 202615 MIN READ

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Macro

The Week Ahead: A Quiet Data Window After the 4% Fed, PCE Next Week

The Sept Fed decision is done and the calendar is thin until PCE on Sep 30. Two Fed speeches, Costco earnings, and the levels that frame a quiet week.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 20, 20264 MIN READ

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CommoditiesboltSpecial Coverage

OFAC Reopens the Lukoil Sale Window for an Eleventh Time, and the Legal Fine Print Hasn't Moved Since November

OFAC's General License 131J extends the Lukoil International sale-negotiation window, with an October 22, 2026 expiry date, but the fine print still withholds actual authorization to close.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 19, 20269 MIN READ

A padlocked industrial gate stands before a hazy oil refinery at dusk.

Macro

OFAC Delays PDVSA Bond Trading to Nov. 5; Russia-Linked Names Quietly Cut From SDN

General License 5Z is the seventh extension of a 2018 authorization that has never taken effect. It shipped in the same release as two Russia-related delistings that carried no explanation, continuing a pattern Treasury has not addressed publicly since March.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 19, 20266 MIN READ

Warehouse-store aisle with stacked plastic motor oil bottles and several empty shelf slots under warm overhead light.

Commodities

The Hormuz Shock Reaches Costco's Oil Aisle: A Live Chokepoint-to-Retail Transmission Case

Costco is capping how many bottles of Kirkland Signature synthetic motor oil a member can buy in a week, the retail endpoint of a four-month transmission from the Strait of Hormuz shut-ins to a warehouse shelf.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 19, 20268 MIN READ

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Equities

A Defensive Tape in Disguise: Sector Rotation Behind the S&P's Flat Week So Far

SPY closed Thursday flat for the week at $762.60, but the tape was defensive: healthcare and staples led while financials and industrials fell. What the rotation signals next.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 18, 20269 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

From Six Cents to a Coin Flip: Kalshi's October Repricing

Kalshi's October hike contract moved from 6 cents on September 4 to a 37.5 cent mid on September 18, a nine-session repricing that front-ran the Fed.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 18, 20261 MIN READ

Line chart of SPY (S&P 500 ETF), last week (USD) on a dark background

Equities

S&P 500 ETF Flat for the Week as Thursday Bounce Reclaims Dip

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, heads into Friday flat for the week at $762.60 after Thursday's risk-on rebound reclaimed a midweek pullback to $749.60 and the VIX fell to 15.44.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 18, 20262 MIN READ

Line chart of Bitcoin, last 90 days (USD) on a dark background

Crypto

Bitcoin Back Above $77K After Defending $75K Zone in a $746M ETF Outflow Week

Bitcoin defended the $75,000-$76,000 zone through a $746M ETF outflow and the Fed's hike, reclaiming $77,000 by Sept 18.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 18, 20261 MIN READ

Line chart of Gold futures (GC=F), last 90 days (USD) on a dark background

Commodities

Gold Holds Near $4,400 as Central Banks Absorb Supply

Gold futures settled Thursday at $4,399.70, up 0.6% on the week from Monday's open, after falling to $4,273.30 before the Fed's hike. Central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in Q2.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 18, 20262 MIN READ