Japan Inflation Rate (CPI, year over year) and Bank of Japan Policy Rate

What this number is

The year-on-year change in Japan's nationwide Consumer Price Index, all items, as compiled by the Statistics Bureau of Japan and published around the third Friday of each month at 08:30 Tokyo time for the month before. This page reads the series from the Bank for International Settlements' consumer-price dataset, which mirrors the Statistics Bureau's figures. The Bank of Japan's short-term policy rate is shown beside it with the date of the decision that set it.

Why it matters

Japan ran below 2% inflation for most of three decades, so the rate's return above target since 2022 is why the Bank of Japan has been raising rates for the first time since 2007. Each print moves the yen, Japanese government bond yields and the carry trades funded in yen that reach into US equities and Treasuries; a hawkish surprise has moved US markets overnight more than once.

Questions readers ask

Is this headline or core CPI?

Headline, all items. The Bank of Japan watches core CPI excluding fresh food most closely, and core-core excluding fresh food and energy; both are in the same Statistics Bureau release and in our International desk's coverage of it.

Why does Japan's fiscal year matter here?

Japan's fiscal year begins in April, so government subsidies on energy and food that start or end in April show up in the April CPI print and distort year-on-year comparisons for twelve months.

What is the Bank of Japan's policy rate?

Since March 2024 the Bank sets a target for the uncollateralised overnight call rate. The figure beside the chart is that target with the date of the decision that set it.