Eurozone Inflation Rate (HICP, year over year) and ECB Deposit Rate

What this number is

The annual rate of change in the euro area's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), all items, as published by Eurostat. The flash estimate lands on the last working day of the month it covers and the final figure about two weeks later; this page shows whichever Eurostat has published, with its month. The European Central Bank's deposit facility rate, the rate the ECB steers with, is shown beside it with the date of the decision that set it.

Why it matters

The ECB's target is 2% on this index over the medium term, so every Governing Council decision is read against this number. It moves the euro, Bund and BTP yields, and the European equity ETFs a US investor holds (EZU, VGK, EWG); a surprise against consensus reprices the dollar within minutes of the 11:00 CET release.

Questions readers ask

Is this the flash estimate or the final figure?

Whichever is the latest Eurostat has published. The flash estimate for a month appears on its last working day; the final figure, which rarely differs by more than 0.1 point, follows around the middle of the next month and replaces it here.

What is the difference between HICP and CPI?

HICP is the inflation measure harmonised across EU members so that countries can be compared and aggregated. It excludes owner-occupied housing costs, which is one reason it can run below national CPI measures that include them.

When does the ECB meet?

Eight times a year, on a Thursday, with the decision at 14:15 CET and the press conference at 14:45. The deposit facility rate beside the chart carries the date of the last change.