Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

A tipped green football helmet and an upright navy helmet sit on the turf beside an empty stadium.

Prediction Markets

Philadelphia Was 65 Cents on the Money. Then Chicago Won by 20.

Kalshi and Polymarket both priced the Eagles at 65.5 percent on Monday afternoon and the Bears beat Philadelphia 27-7, the largest one-game miss between a priced probability and a settled NFL result this season.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 29, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

New York and Polymarket Sued Each Other, Then the Sixth Circuit Ruled Against Kalshi

Dueling New York and Polymarket lawsuits on September 24 and a Sixth Circuit ruling against Kalshi on September 25 leave the $51 billion event-contract market split between three circuits and headed for the Supreme Court.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 28, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

The Fed Hiked. Now the Rate Markets Are Pricing Another One.

Kalshi prices a second Fed hike at 66 cents and a third at even money after September's hike to 4.00 percent. The December contract went from 2 to 50 cents in a month.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 28, 20265 MIN READ

Dim corridor with two identical doors, one ajar with warm light, the other closed in shadow

Prediction Markets

Kalshi Puts Anthropic First at 93 Cents After OpenAI Ruled Out a 2026 Listing

Kalshi's Anthropic-first contract trades at 93 cents on September 25 after Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 OpenAI listing and Anthropic's own window slipped to November.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 25, 20264 MIN READ

Brass rate-adjustment dial in warm light with a blurred marble government building facade behind it

Prediction Markets

October Hike Odds Jump 14 Points on the Barr Speech

Polymarket moved a 25 bp October Fed hike from 53.5 to 64.5 percent in a day, and the 14 point reprice landed inside two hours of Governor Barr's September 23 speech.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 24, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi's December Ladder Puts a Second Fed Hike at 42 Percent

The October hike odds faded from their weekend peak, but Kalshi's December ladder now prices a second consecutive Fed hike at 42 percent, and the CPI strip explains why.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 23, 20263 MIN READ

Line chart of Polymarket: Flavio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazil election (cents) on a dark background

Prediction Markets

Polymarket Puts Flavio Bolsonaro at 61 Cents in Brazil While the Polls Say Tie

Polymarket prices Flavio Bolsonaro at 61 cents for Brazil's presidency on September 22 while three fresh polls call the first round a tie, a 20-point divergence built on the October 4 first round and the October 25 runoff.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 22, 20265 MIN READ

Empty rows of seats in a grand legislative chamber with a lit ballot box in the foreground

Prediction Markets

Polymarket's Duma Seat Ladder Priced 340-354 at 81 Cents. The Count Says 324.

Polymarket's Russian election books turned over about 25 million dollars in a day, called the party winner within a point, and still put 81 percent odds on a seat band the count missed by 16 seats.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 21, 20265 MIN READ

Line chart of 2-Year Treasury futures yield, last 3 months (%) on a dark background

Prediction Markets

Event markets moved to a 56 percent October hike after Warsh's first raise. The 2-year Treasury moved with them.

The week's defining trade in event markets was the repricing of the October Fed meeting: Kalshi's hike contract ran from 38% to 56% across the September FOMC, and Polymarket landed within two points.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 21, 20264 MIN READ

A brass coin frozen mid-tumble above an evenly balanced brass scale, in dramatic light on a dark background

Prediction Markets

October Fed Ladder Priced Near a Coin Flip While the CPI Strip Quietly Reprices

Kalshi prices a further 2026 Fed hike at 44.5 percent for October against 83.5 percent by December, a 6 point venue gap with Polymarket opened after the September 16 FOMC hike to 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 18, 20266 MIN READ

Line chart of the Polymarket price history for the October 1 government shutdown market, showing the collapse from a 66% peak in July to 0.85% on September 17, 2026.

Prediction Markets

The October 1 Shutdown Market Is Dead at One Cent

Kalshi and Polymarket have both collapsed October 1 shutdown odds to about 1 percent after H.R. 6500 funded the government through December 11, ending a six-week repricing that began at 66 percent in July.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 17, 20265 MIN READ

Empty NFL stadium bowl at dusk viewed from upper tier seats

Prediction Markets

NFL Prediction Markets Edge Out Sportsbooks on Spreads as Legal Battle Continues

Kalshi's NFL Week 1 vig of 4.32% beat DraftKings at 4.51% and FanDuel at 4.44%, marking the first time the prediction market priced straight bets cheaper than legacy sportsbooks during the NFL season.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 16, 20265 MIN READ