Event markets moved to a 56 percent October hike after Warsh's first raise. The 2-year Treasury moved with them.

Key takeaways Kalshi prices a 25bp October Fed hike at 56%, up from 38% before the September 16 FOMC and 19% in mid-July. Polymarket agrees at 54.5%; no cut is priced above 1% at either venue. The 2-year yield rose about 48 basis points since August 20, confirming the same expectation in conventional markets. September CPI contracts resolve October 14; a monthly rise above 0.5% is priced at 62%. The week of September 21 heads into its first open with a single line on the event-contract board: Kalshi's market on a 25 basis point hike at the October 28 FOMC, which stood at 56 cents in Monday trading, up from 38 cents on September 15. That is an 18 point move in implied probability across one F…