prediction-markets

Polymarket Puts Flavio Bolsonaro at 61 Cents in Brazil While the Polls Say Tie

Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent

Published September 22, 20265 min read

Line chart of Polymarket: Flavio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazil election (cents) on a dark background — As Brazil's first round nears, prediction markets and pollsters are no longer measuring the same thing. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Two numbers sit side by side this week and they do not agree. On Monday, September 21, Polymarket's contract on Flavio Bolsonaro winning Brazil's October 4 presidential election traded at 61 cents, and by Tuesday morning (07:46 UTC, September 22) it held at 60.9 cents, a 21-point climb from the 39.3 cents it closed at on September 1. The same window produced three new polls, from Datafolha, Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus, and all three put the first round in a statistical tie: Datafolha had President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 36 percent (September 17), Quaest 37 to 33 (September 21), BTG/Nexus 40 to 37 (September 21). The prediction market has been moving in one…

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