prediction-markets

Polymarket's Duma Seat Ladder Priced 340-354 at 81 Cents. The Count Says 324.

Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent

Published September 21, 20265 min read

Empty rows of seats in a grand legislative chamber with a lit ballot box in the foreground — Polymarket's Duma seat-ladder was confident and wrong — the empty chamber tells the rest. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Polymarket's markets on Russia's State Duma election traded $11.2 million across the party markets in the 24 hours before the count closed, and $12.8 million across all 21 Russia election markets on the board, and by early Monday the venue had called the headline question almost perfectly: United Russia to win the most seats traded at 99.95 percent as of 07:00 UTC Monday, against preliminary Central Election Commission figures giving the party 324 of the 450 seats. The seat-count ladder did not do as well. The band covering 340 to 354 seats is marked at 81 percent as of early Monday, September 21, while the preliminary count sits at 324, a band below it that the same ladder had priced at 1.5…

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