From Six Cents to a Coin Flip: Kalshi's October Repricing

Kalshi's market on whether the federal funds upper bound sits above 4.00 percent after the October 28 meeting closed Friday, September 4, at 6 cents. By Friday, September 18, it traded with a bid of 35 cents and an ask of 40 cents. That is a swing of roughly 30 probability points in nine sessions on a contract with 38,000 dollars of volume and 28,000 dollars of open interest, and it happened without a single new Fed statement in between. The repricing is the story, and the tape shows exactly how it happened.

Key takeaways: Kalshi's October above-4.00-percent contract moved from 6 cents on September 4 to a 37.5 cent mid on September 18. Polymarket's October hike contract rose from 26.5 to 50.5…