October Fed Ladder Priced Near a Coin Flip While the CPI Strip Quietly Reprices
The single number that defines this week on the event-contract desk is 44.5 percent. That is the price, as of Friday September 18 at roughly 07:45 UTC, on Kalshi's KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 contract, the strike that pays if the upper bound of the federal funds rate stands above 4.00 percent after the October 28 meeting. In plain terms, the market's probability of one more hike this year is just under a coin flip, and it has been repriced into that position in roughly 48 hours.
Key takeaways
Kalshi prices an October Fed hike at 44.5%, a near coin flip, with December at 83.5%. A 6-point price gap has opened between Kalshi and Polymarket on the October meeting. The September CPI strip priced a 0.6%+ prin…
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