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Cross-Venue Mispricings in Fed, CPI and Election Markets

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 16, 20265 min read
A brass balance scale tipped unevenly under dramatic gold light against a dark navy background
Two venues, one Fed meeting, two different answers: prediction markets price the same event unevenly. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Prediction market pricing for the September 2026 Federal Reserve meeting shows a meaningful spread between Kalshi and Polymarket, while CPI and election markets exist on only one venue. This creates fragmentation across the prediction market landscape.

Key Takeaways Kalshi implies a 3.85 percent federal funds rate after the September 2026 meeting while Polymarket implies 3.72 percent. The 12.3 basis point spread reflects different contract structures on the two venues. Polymarket has no direct CPI futures markets while Kalshi offers November 2026 CPI contracts. Kalshi has no 2026 House control markets while Polymarket prices Democratic control at 87.5 percent. Volume disparities between venue…

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