September FOMC: Kalshi's Rate Ladder Priced the Hike at 87 Percent and Missed by Two Cents

Kalshi's strike ladder for the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting settled almost perfectly against the Committee's actual decision. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 12 to 0 vote (Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026). Kalshi's contract on whether the upper bound would sit above 4.00 percent closed at 2 cents and resolved no. The contract on whether the upper bound would sit above 3.75 percent closed at 86 cents and resolved yes. Two cents of error on the boundary strike is about as clean as an event ladder gets, and the way the market got there says a lot about how event markets now digest polic…