prediction-markets

Kalshi Puts Anthropic First at 93 Cents After OpenAI Ruled Out a 2026 Listing

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 25, 20264 min read
Dim corridor with two identical doors, one ajar with warm light, the other closed in shadow
Kalshi's contract now prices Anthropic to reach the IPO door first, as OpenAI's own 2026 window quietly closes. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Kalshi's event market on which AI lab goes public first now prices Anthropic ahead of OpenAI at 93 cents on the Anthropic contract as of September 25, up from a range of 88 to 92 cents in the week before September 12. The OpenAI side of the same event, KXOAIANTH-40, has fallen to a 9 to 12 cent spread, and the two contracts together have traded 397,708 contracts since the market opened. The repricing is not a slow drift. It followed two dated events: Sam Altman's September 12 statement that taking OpenAI public now would come at an "ill-advised moment," and September 18 reporting from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that Anthropic pushed its own listing window from October to…

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