NFL Prediction Markets Edge Out Sportsbooks on Spreads as Legal Battle Continues
Kalshi's Week 1 implied vig of 4.32% beat DraftKings at 4.51% and FanDuel at 4.44% in September 2026, marking a 52 basis point improvement from 2025. NFL Week 1 trading volume on Kalshi reached $983.36 million, up 1288% week over week, driving tighter spreads of 1 to 2% on liquid markets. The CFTC issued a proposed rule on June 10, 2026 regarding event contracts as the Third Circuit and Ninth Circuit remain split on whether sports contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Twenty states are locked in litigation over prediction markets as enforcement diverges by jurisdiction. The price gap between NFL prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks has narrowed to a razor's edge. Ka…
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