prediction-markets

Philadelphia Was 65 Cents on the Money. Then Chicago Won by 20.

Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent

Published September 29, 20265 min read

A tipped green football helmet and an upright navy helmet sit on the turf beside an empty stadium. — An empty sideline evokes Chicago’s upset of Philadelphia after prediction markets favored the Eagles. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The Philadelphia Eagles closed Monday afternoon at 65.5 percent to beat the Chicago Bears, the same mid on Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI-PHI contract and on Polymarket's Eagles vs. Bears market at 08:00 UTC on September 28, the coverage print the desk filed yesterday. Chicago won 27-7 on Monday night. A 65.5 percent probability carries a 34.5 percent chance of the other side, so the Bears winning was not out of sample. The size was. A 65.5 cent contract resolving against the favorite while the favorite loses by 20 points is the widest gap this desk has recorded this season between how confidently a market priced a favorite and how the game actually went.

Key Takeaways Both Kalshi and Polym…

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