prediction-markets

New York and Polymarket Sued Each Other, Then the Sixth Circuit Ruled Against Kalshi

Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent

Published September 28, 20265 min read

Grand marble courthouse columns at dusk, shadows dividing the facade into three uneven sections — With New York, Polymarket, and Kalshi now colliding across three federal circuits, the $51 billion prediction-market industry is headed for the Supreme Court. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

New York sued Polymarket in Manhattan state court on September 24 and Polymarket sued back the same afternoon in federal court, and a day later the Sixth Circuit ruled unanimously that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts under state gambling law. Nineteen states now have live litigation over event-contract venues. Who sets the rules for a product that did $51 billion in volume in 2025 is now headed somewhere neither side controls: the Supreme Court.

New York and Polymarket filed dueling suits on September 24, the state seeking fines and forfeiture, the venue seeking a declaration that the CFTC has exclusive authority. On September 25 the Sixth Circuit ruled Ohio and Tenn…

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