Daily coverage · Weekly briefing Mondays · Ethan Caldwell

Prediction Markets

Kalshi, Polymarket and event contracts. What the odds say about the Fed, CPI, elections and market structure, and how they resolved.

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Prediction Markets

Fed Hold Odds Snap Back to 57 Percent: Williams Resets the October Ladder

One speech from the New York Fed president wiped two thirds off the October hike odds overnight, and the December ladder moved with it.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20266 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi's Brazil Ladder Prices a Runoff the Polls Don't

Kalshi's round-one ladder prices Lula at 73.5 cents to win October 4 yet Flavio Bolsonaro at 56.5 cents to be president, an implied 59 to 41 runoff that sits nineteen points from Monday's BTG/Nexus and Quaest fieldwork.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 29, 20266 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Philadelphia Was 65 Cents on the Money. Then Chicago Won by 20.

Kalshi and Polymarket both priced the Eagles at 65.5 percent on Monday afternoon and the Bears beat Philadelphia 27-7, the largest one-game miss between a priced probability and a settled NFL result this season.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 29, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Peace at 96 Cents, a Closed Strait at 0.3

Polymarket prices the US-Iran ceasefire holding at 96.1 percent while Hormuz traffic normalization by the same date trades at 0.3 percent: peace is firming and the strait stays closed.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 28, 20266 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

New York and Polymarket Sued Each Other, Then the Sixth Circuit Ruled Against Kalshi

Dueling New York and Polymarket lawsuits on September 24 and a Sixth Circuit ruling against Kalshi on September 25 leave the $51 billion event-contract market split between three circuits and headed for the Supreme Court.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 28, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

The Fed Hiked. Now the Rate Markets Are Pricing Another One.

Kalshi prices a second Fed hike at 66 cents and a third at even money after September's hike to 4.00 percent. The December contract went from 2 to 50 cents in a month.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 28, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

October Is Dead: Shutdown Odds Move to December on Kalshi

Kalshi's October 1 shutdown contract is dead at one cent, and the venue's new December 12 contract has slid from 46 to 28 cents in two days, moving the funding question to the winter window.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 25, 20267 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi Puts Anthropic First at 93 Cents After OpenAI Ruled Out a 2026 Listing

Kalshi's Anthropic-first contract trades at 93 cents on September 25 after Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 OpenAI listing and Anthropic's own window slipped to November.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 25, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi Puts the October Fed Hike at Two Thirds and the December Ladder Agrees

Kalshi's October 25 basis point hike contract trades at 66 cents in September 24 trading with 219,000 contracts traded, and the December ladder confirms the repricing is a path, not a spike.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 24, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

October Hike Odds Jump 14 Points on the Barr Speech

Polymarket moved a 25 bp October Fed hike from 53.5 to 64.5 percent in a day, and the 14 point reprice landed inside two hours of Governor Barr's September 23 speech.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 24, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Iran Blockade Odds Reprice on the Seven Day Reopening Offer

Polymarket's Iran blockade ladder spiked on Tehran's seven day reopening offer and then faded: the December rung trades at 62 percent while the end-of-September rung sits at 7.5.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 23, 20267 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi's December Ladder Puts a Second Fed Hike at 42 Percent

The October hike odds faded from their weekend peak, but Kalshi's December ladder now prices a second consecutive Fed hike at 42 percent, and the CPI strip explains why.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 23, 20263 MIN READ

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