Iran Blockade Odds Reprice on the Seven Day Reopening Offer

Polymarket's ladder on the United States naval blockade of Iran repriced hard on Tuesday, September 22, after a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure and lifts the blockade. The year-end rung of the ladder touched 66.25 percent at its Tuesday close, the highest since late August, and the end-October rung traded as high as 42.5 percent. By the latest print at about 08:45 UTC, both had been marked back down, to 62 and 32 percent respectively, while the end-of-September rung, which settles in eight days, sits at just 7.5 percent. The offer moved the long end of the ladder and barely touched the sh…