Peace at 96 Cents, a Closed Strait at 0.3

Polymarket is paying 96 cents for a ceasefire that keeps holding and 0.3 cents for shipping traffic that keeps not coming back. The venue prices "US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?" at a 96.1 percent midpoint as of Monday, September 28, and it prices "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" at 0.3 percent on the same order book. Two contracts, one venue, one week apart on the same underlying conflict. The market says the shooting pause is close to a certainty and the reopening of the strait is close to impossible, and that gap is the most instructive number on the beat this week.

Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the US-Iran ceasefire holding through Septem…