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Kalshi's Brazil Ladder Prices a Runoff the Polls Don't

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 29, 20266 min read
Two empty voting booths stand apart in a quiet polling place lit by soft daylight.
The prospect of a runoff frames a sharp disagreement between election markets and recent polls. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Kalshi's Brazil suite now contains a contradiction in plain sight, and it is the most instructive pricing on the board five days before the vote. At 08:56 UTC on September 29, the venue's first-round winner market priced Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 73.5 cents to win the upcoming first round on October 4, against 25.5 cents for Flavio Bolsonaro. The second-place market agreed, putting Flavio Bolsonaro at 74.5 cents to finish second and Lula at 25 cents. Yet the outright market on the same exchange priced Flavio Bolsonaro at 56.5 cents to become president, and Lula at only 44.5. A ladder that prices Lula to win round one by nearly three to one, and then prices him to lose the presidency by mo…

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