Fed Hold Odds Snap Back to 57 Percent: Williams Resets the October Ladder
The October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee opened Tuesday as the most lopsided trade on the rate board, and it closed a very different market. Kalshi's contract on whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate would be above 4.00 percent after the Fed's October 28 meeting traded at 70 cents at the prior close, a figure that priced a 25 basis point hike as near certainty. By roughly 08:00 UTC on September 30, the same contract bid 45 cents and asked 47, with the last trade printed at 46. That is a 24 point repricing of a meeting now four weeks away, driven by one man's lunchtime remarks in Buffalo.
The trigger was John Williams, president of the New York Fed, speaking at the…
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