Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
Polymarket's US-Iran ceasefire continuation ladder prices the lull fading from 94.6 percent this week to a 37.5 percent chance it is still running on December 31, and the steepest step in the strip sits as a no-agreement market points to a closed strait into early November.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket prices a hold at 86.5 percent for the October 27 to 28 FOMC while CME FedWatch futures swing to a coin flip, and the gap is instrument structure, not disagreement about the Fed.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Today's 1.3% producer price jump held the October Fed decision market at a 72.5% no-change reading, but pushed Polymarket's October CPI market to price 3.7% annual at 68.5%, and a 13.0% tail on 3.9%, the clearest read on whether the September energy spike persists.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's September CPI ladder settled YES on the 0.5% threshold after BLS reported a 0.6% monthly rise, and Polymarket's October Fed hold pricing fell to 62.5%.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi’s lead September CPI threshold contract fell to 58.5%, while neighboring odds bracket a narrow range before the BLS release on October 14.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket priced a 29% chance of Supreme Court review by year-end on October 9, as the NFL and other groups filed briefs in a case over sports event contracts.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's December rate market moved higher after the Fed minutes detailed persistent inflation risks and a policy debate still open to incoming data.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi’s OpenAI and Google contracts show 85% and 78% midpoints with no reported trading, while the venue API describes a settlement test that differs from its CFTC filing.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
A new Kalshi filing defines a Dow closing-value contract while its year-end ladder shows a wide spread around the $55,000 and $56,000 thresholds.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket's Brazil winner market flipped to Flavio Bolsonaro at 62.9 cents on the morning of October 1, up from 56.7 cents three days before the Sunday first round, while a Futura poll put the senator ahead of Lula 42.2 to 39.4.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's 2028 Taiwan Level 4 advisory leg jumped from 13 to 22 cents on September 30 after a Treaty of San Francisco display was pulled from the Trump-Xi archives visit, and the ladder's term structure now puts the risk squarely after 2027.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's round-one ladder prices Lula at 73.5 cents to win October 4 yet Flavio Bolsonaro at 56.5 cents to be president, an implied 59 to 41 runoff that sits nineteen points from Monday's BTG/Nexus and Quaest fieldwork.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst