October CPI Forecast: Polymarket Pushes 3.7% to 68.5% After Today's Producer Price Shock

Today's producer price report was the shock the October Fed decision market needed to stop assuming a hold. The producer price index for final demand rose 1.3% in September from August (BLS, released at 12:30 UTC on October 15), the largest monthly increase since March 2022, and the 12 month rate climbed to 6.3%, the fastest since December 2022. The consensus had called for 0.6% month over month and 5.5% year over year, so the print cleared the top of the forecast range for both measures. The first reaction on prediction venues was not to the producer headline alone, but to what it implies for the consumer index, the print every rate contract actually settles on.

Key Takeaways The October ann…