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September CPI market: Kalshi 0.5% contract settles YES, October Fed hike odds jump to 36.5%

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 14, 20267 min read
A gasoline pump nozzle rests in its cradle at an empty filling station in late-day light.
Gasoline helped drive September’s hotter CPI reading, which settled Kalshi contracts and shifted Fed hike odds. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Kalshi's September CPI ladder settled against the print released at 12:30 UTC Wednesday morning, and the market's center bracket was the right answer. The contract betting the monthly index would rise more than 0.5% closed YES, with the last-traded price at 68 cents, while the contract above 0.6% closed NO. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported CPI-U up 0.6% month over month, seasonally adjusted, for September, with headline inflation at 3.7% year over year, the hottest reading since May. The prediction market did not call an edge case. It called the middle of the range, and that bracket was exactly where the data landed.

Key Takeaways Kalshi's 'CPI rise more than 0.5% in September' contrac…

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