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CPI Markets Price 58.5% Odds Above 0.5%

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 12, 20266 min read
An unmarked paper folder rests beside a brass balance scale and plain metal weights on a dark desk.
A forthcoming CPI release will settle the prediction market’s narrowly defined inflation question. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Kalshi’s September CPI market assigns 58.5% probability to a monthly increase above 0.5%, down from a previous midpoint of 65% in Kalshi’s previous-quote fields. The move is not a verdict that inflation has cooled. It is a probability price around a narrow threshold before the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics release on October 14.

Key Takeaways Kalshi’s September CPI threshold priced a 58.5% chance of a monthly increase above 0.5% on October 12, down from a previous midpoint of 65%.

Related reading: CPI Market Prices a 58.5% Chance of a 0.5% Rise .

Adjacent thresholds ranged from 91.5% above 0.4% to 14% above 0.6%, showing how sensitive the market’s answer is to the exact print.

The BLS sched…

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