Fed rate hike odds: 86.5% hold vs 54% hike; who's right

The October 27 to 28 FOMC is eleven days out and the two halves of the rate market are no longer saying the same thing. Event contracts on Polymarket price a hold at 86.5 percent as of October 16, with a 25 basis point hike at 12.5 percent and a 50 basis point hike at 0.35 percent. The federal funds futures curve that CME FedWatch reads out swung to a 45 to 50 percent coin flip after the hot September core CPI print on October 14, and a crypto desk at MarketIntelLabs characterized October hike odds at 54 percent the morning of October 16. Two instruments, two very different probabilities for the same meeting.

Key Takeaways Polymarket prices an October hold at 86.5 percent as of October 16, wi…