Fed Minutes Lift December Hike Odds to 82% on Inflation Risks

Kalshi traders raised the probability that the Federal Reserve's upper-bound policy rate will exceed 4.00% after its December 9 meeting to 82.5% on October 7, up from a 78% prior close. The move followed publication of the September meeting minutes, which documented an inflation-focused case for further firming even as the Committee judged labor-market risks broadly balanced.

Key Takeaways Kalshi displayed an 82.5% midpoint for the December 9 contract, versus a 78% prior close recorded by the venue at the time of retrieval. The September 16 FOMC minutes said all participants supported a quarter-point increase and described risks to inflation as tilted upward. The contract's near-term price mo…