Brazil's First Round Is Sunday and the Money Has Already Moved: Flavio Bolsonaro Is Now 63 Cents
The Brazilian presidential election holds its first round this Sunday, October 4, and the prediction markets have stopped treating it as a Lula story. Polymarket's market on the eventual winner priced Flavio Bolsonaro, the senator and eldest son of the former president, at 62.9 percent on Thursday morning October 1, up from 56.7 percent on September 28, per the venue's price history. Lula fell over the same stretch from 42.5 to 36.5 percent. Three days before votes are counted, a market that traded inside a two-point band for most of September has moved six points against the incumbent.
Key Takeaways Polymarket's Brazil winner market priced Flavio Bolsonaro at 62.9 cents on October 1 at 08:52…
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