Kalshi AI Market Odds Reach 85%, but Filing and Live Rules Differ
Kalshi’s new AI model markets expose a settlement question that matters more than their headline prices. The CFTC filing describes a single ranking at a specified measurement time, while the exchange API says a lead at any point before the deadline can qualify. At 09:11 UTC on October 7, 2026, OpenAI’s displayed YES midpoint was 85% and Google’s was 78%, but both showed zero volume and open interest. That is not a settled consensus.
Key takeaways OpenAI YES midpoint 85% and Google 78% at 09:11 UTC on October 7, 2026, with zero volume and open interest on both contracts. The CFTC filing measures the top-ranked model at a single measurement time; the live Kalshi API says a lead at any point bef…
Continue reading with Premium
The full prediction-markets analysis, with levels, positioning, and what changed, continues below the line.
- checkFull deep-dive reports while they're current: levels, positioning, and conviction scores
- checkWatchlist changes as our analysts make them
- checkExclusive investigative reports
Not ready? Create a free account for extended previews · Already a member? Log in
Secure checkout via Stripe