Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Stacks of copper ingots in the foreground with stacks of gold ingots on shelves and cargo ships at a port in the background.

Commodities

Gold Holds $4,300 Breakout as Copper Nears Record Highs

Gold is holding the $4,300 breakout Monday morning after last week's 7% rally, with GLD, SLV and the miners all firm. Copper sits near record levels on a real supply deficit, and oil stays two-sided as Hormuz tension meets a surprise inventory build.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 10, 20262 MIN READ

Aerial view of a narrow strait with numerous cargo ships and smaller boats navigating the calm waters between misty mountains.

Commodities

Gold Reclaims $4,334 as Safe-Haven Demand Surges on Hormuz Fears

Gold reclaimed $4,334/oz on Friday, August 7, its fourth consecutive session of gains, as Iran-Oman-US talks on the Strait of Hormuz pulled September Fed rate-hike odds from 67% to 55%. Key support at $4,264; resistance at $4,355-$4,400.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 7, 20262 MIN READ

A man looks through binoculars at a distant oil tanker at sea, with gold bars and coins, and a second pair of binoculars on a rock in the foreground.

Commodities

Gold Above $4,200, Oil Steady: Commodities Face Geopolitical and Macro Crosscurrents

Spot gold at $4,257.88 holds above $4,200 despite a rising dollar as the Strait of Hormuz crisis keeps a geopolitical risk premium across commodities. WTI crude stabilizes in the $78-$84 range after a $126/bbl peak. Key levels and both sides of the trade.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 7, 20262 MIN READ

A stack of four shiny gold bars, two silver bars, and one rustic copper bar on a dark surface.

Commodities

Silver Surges 2.6%, Copper Hits a 52-Week High, Oil Craters 5%

Silver surged 2.6% to $59/oz on August 5 as copper hit a 52-week high and oil fell 5% on ceasefire news. Gold holds $4,161 with a CFTC positioning washout as backdrop.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 5, 20265 MIN READ

Rows of gleaming gold bars stacked on shelves in a vault or secure storage facility, extending into the background.

Commodities

Gold Holds $4,064 as Central Banks Signal Record Buying

Spot gold held $4,064 on August 4 as the World Gold Council's 2026 survey found 45% of central bank reserve managers plan to add gold over the next 12 months, the most bullish reading in nine years. Silver futures up 59% on the year. WTI crude posted an 18% July gain.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 4, 20265 MIN READ

A large, dark oil tanker ship seen from the side, illuminated by the golden light of a sunset or sunrise, with water in the foreground and a mountain in the background.

Commodities

Oil Pulls Back from 16% Surge: What Comes Next for WTI

WTI crude shed 5.4% on August 3 to around $80/bbl after a 16.85% one-month rally fueled by Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions. Here is what the supply data says about what comes next.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 3, 20262 MIN READ

A convoy of massive oil tankers and smaller pilot boats navigate a narrow strait with arid, rocky hillsides under a hazy sky.

Commodities

OPEC+ Completes Its Cut Rollback. Brent Holds at $90.

OPEC+ agreed Sunday to raise September production by 188,000 bpd, completing the phased rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts from April 2023. Brent settled Friday at $90.10 and barely moved. The Strait of Hormuz, not the quota sheet, is setting the price.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 2, 20261 MIN READ

Aerial view of a port with large oil tankers and smaller ships on the water, next to a grain loading facility with silos and piles of grain.

Commodities

Oil Above $100 and the Commodity Sector's Next Catalyst: Energy and Agriculture Outlook

WTI crude pulled back to $82.47 on July 31 after Brent touched $92.65 Thursday. The $15-$20/bbl Iran conflict premium has not gone away, and sustained energy above $90 directly threatens the Fed's inflation progress.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 31, 20262 MIN READ

Shiny gold nuggets lie on rough dark ground next to a pool of viscous black liquid, representing crude oil.

Commodities

Gold and Oil Face Competing Forces on July 30

Gold trades at $4,087/oz as geopolitical risk from the US-Iran conflict and the Fed's hawkish pause pull commodities in opposite directions on July 30.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 30, 20261 MIN READ

Oil tanker on water with a refining facility and storage tanks in the background under a sunset-colored sky.

Commodities

Gold and Oil Are Sending Conflicting Inflation Signals

Oil jumped 4% on Iranian strikes. Gold barely moved. The divergence between two inflation-hedge commodities reveals how the market is reading the September rate path.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 29, 20266 MIN READ

An aerial view of numerous oil tankers sailing on the open sea under a golden-orange sky at dusk, with distant land.

Commodities

Oil Surges 4% as Iran Attacks US Troops, Drones Hit Saudi Facilities

WTI crude surged to $82.54, up more than 4%, after Iranian forces attacked US troops and Saudi Arabia's Eastern Region oil facilities. Here is what the move means and what to watch next.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 29, 20262 MIN READ

Aerial view of a large oil tanker entering a port with multiple other ships, oil storage tanks, and refinery infrastructure.

Commodities

Oil Falls 5% as OPEC+ Overrides Hormuz Risk

WTI crude fell 5.44% to $84.45 as OPEC+ confirmed a 548,000 bpd output increase for August. Copper holds structural support near $6.36 on tariff fears. Wheat gets a geopolitical jolt from Kerch Strait closure.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 27, 20264 MIN READ