Two more Russian refinery strikes extend the outage: the tracker now counts 26
Two more strikes on Russian refining hit the standing tracker this session, taking the running count to 26 entries. Ukraine's General Staff said Defense Forces struck the Rosneft Kuibyshev refinery in Samara overnight on 21-22 September, re-hitting the AVT-4 and AVT-5 primary crude-distillation units that June strikes had already idled; Ukrainian drone maker Fire Point put the fires at those two units. Samara Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev confirmed a large drone attack on the region the same day, saying drones targeted industrial enterprises, without naming the refinery. A reported fire on the refinery grounds, carried by Euromaidan Press and the Russian outlet ASTRA, is the second source that moves the entry to confirmed, with the two units' nameplate at 130 to 150 kb/d.
Bashneft-UNPZ, the Ufa refinery in the Republic of Bashkortostan, was struck 21-22 September. Ukraine's General Staff claimed the hit; no second-source confirmation has surfaced this session, so the tracker files it as claimed, with 140-160 kb/d nameplate per the tracker (7.5 Mt/yr). Both sides' accounts sit side by side in the table below.
That re-hit pushes cumulative confirmed capacity in the tracker to a low-high band of about 2,177 to 4,485 kb/d. The band is a dated range from the tracker, not a point estimate, and it grew this session because the Kuibyshev units came back onto the list as confirmed. Read the count as hits over time, not capacity offline right now. For the fuller picture of Ukraine's drones and the 2 to 4.3 million barrels a day of refining offline, the earlier brief has the set-up: repeat strikes on one plant count each time, so the tally overstates how much refining is dark at any one moment.
The market transmission is what ties this to the crack. Russian refinery runs held near 3.8 million b/d in June, roughly 30% below a year earlier (IEA Oil Market Report), and that product scarcity sits behind the ULSD crack against Brent near $104/bbl versus about $30 a year ago (MIL factsheet, 2026-09-20). The strikes are the cause; the distillate crack is the story, and it pairs with crude shedding its risk premium near $98, and these two entries keep the cause live even as headline crude unwinds its escalation premium.
| Date | Target | Type | Ukraine says | Russia says | Confirmed by | Est. capacity effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Rosneft Kuibyshev Oil Refinery, Samara Oblast | refinery | Ukraine's General Staff said Defense Forces struck the Kuibyshev refinery in Samara on the night of 21-22 September; Ukrainian drone maker Fire Point said FP-1 drones hit the AVT-4 and AVT-5 primary crude-distillation units, starting a large fire. (General Staff of Ukraine / Fire Point (via RBC-Ukraine, Euromaidan Press)) | Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev confirmed a large drone attack on the region on 22 Sep, saying drones 'targeted industrial enterprises' and that one person was killed and four injured from falling debris; he did not name the Kuibyshev refinery. (Vyacheslav Fedorishchev (via Euromaidan Press, United24)) | Euromaidan Press + Russian outlet ASTRA confirmed fire on refinery grounds | 130 to 150 kb/d (Euromaidan Press (7 Mt/yr nameplate, each AVT unit ~73 kb/d), 2026-09-22) |
| 2026-09-20 | Gazprom Neft Moscow Oil Refinery, Kapotnya (Moscow) | refinery | President Zelensky said Kyiv hit "one of Russia's key oil industry facilities and the aggressor's logistics facility"; Ukrainian sources cited primary (AVT-6-type) and isomerization units hit and a large fire. (Zelensky / Ukrainian reports (via Srpske Novine, Energy News Beat)) | Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed damage in the capital's orbit and a large drone wave (450 drones toward the capital per Sobyanin; Russia claimed it downed 660 craft); Moscow Region Gov. Vorobyov confirmed two dead in the region; Gazprom Neft did not comment. (Sergei Sobyanin / Andrei Vorobyov (via BBC/Srpske, Energy News Beat)) | Srpske Novine / BBC report + Reuters June confirmation of plant outage | 220 to 245 kb/d (Energy News Beat (plant nameplate ~220,000-245,000 b/d), 2026-09-20) |
| 2026-09-15 | Syzran refinery (Rosneft, Samara region) | refinery | Ukraine's General Staff listed the Syzran refinery among targets struck between 14 and 20 September in its post-campaign report; it said more than 45% of Russia's refining capacity is offline as of 21 September and cited a Euro-5 fuel shortage. (General Staff of Ukraine (via Caliber.Az, 2026-09-21)) | No official Russian statement located; Reuters (via Moscow Times), citing three industry sources, said the plant paused processing on 15 September and that the main CDU-6 crude-distillation unit, accounting for 71% of capacity, was damaged and could take at least a month to repair. (Reuters via The Moscow Times, 2026-09-16) | Reuters (via The Moscow Times), 2026-09-16 | n/a |
| 2026-08-30 | Kirishi refinery | refinery | SOF/SBU/Unmanned Systems struck Kirishi, halting crude processing (>half of capacity out). (Ukraine Joint Deep Strike (via drone-warfare)) | Crude processing halted at the plant, ~7% of Russian refining. (industry sources (drone-warfare)) | drone-warfare (crude processing halted, >half capacity) | 300 to 420 kb/d (drone-warfare (20 Mt/y, ~7% of refining), 2026-08-30) |
| 2026-08-25 | Lukoil NORSI refinery (Kstovo) | refinery | SOF/Unmanned Systems struck NORSI overnight 25-26 Aug; General Staff confirmed strike and fire; plant ~17 Mt/y, ~11% of Russian petrol. (Ukraine General Staff (via Ukrainska Pravda)) | Fire at the refinery confirmed; adjacent logistics facility also hit. (Nizhny Novgorod governor / officials) | Ukrainska Pravda (GS confirmation + fire) | 160 to 350 kb/d (Ukrainska Pravda (17 Mt/y, ~11% of petrol), 2026-08-25) |
| 2026-07-14 | Salavat refinery (Bashkortostan) | refinery | SOF struck the AVT-6 primary distillation unit (~1,500 km range). (Ukraine SOF (via drone-warfare)) | No Russian capacity statement located; refinery in Bashkortostan. (no Russian capacity statement located) | satellite imagery (AVT-4 + Rosneft-Opt depot hit) per drone-warfare | 100 to 300 kb/d (drone-warfare, 2026-07-14) |
| 2026-07-06 | Omsk refinery (Gazprom Neft, largest in Russia) | refinery | Struck Omsk, Russia's largest refinery (22 Mt/y), hitting the ELOU-AVT-11 crude unit. (Ukraine (FP-1 drones, via drone-warfare)) | Omsk stopped selling gasoline/diesel on the exchange on 7 July; status not fully disclosed by officials. (SPIMEX listing / industry (drone-warfare)) | drone-warfare (exchange delisting + unit hit) | 200 to 450 kb/d (drone-warfare (22 Mt/y, AVT-11), 2026-07-06) |
| 2026-05-20 | Lukoil NORSI refinery (Kstovo) | refinery | General Staff confirmed strike on Lukoil NORSI, damaging AVT-6 (CDU-6) crude distillation unit. (Ukraine General Staff (via Euromaidan Press)) | Governor Gleb Nikitin confirmed a fire at the industrial site; Lukoil did not respond. (Nizhny Novgorod governor (Reuters)) | Reuters (CDU-6/AVT-6 damaged, primary processing shut) | 160 to 330 kb/d (Reuters (CDU-6 ~53% of NORSI capacity), 2026-05-20) |
| 2026-05-05 | Kirishi refinery (Leningrad) | refinery | Struck Kirishi, Russia's 2nd-largest refinery (20 Mt/y), shutting crude processing. (Ukraine (via drone-warfare)) | Facility shut down production; output diverted to domestic market. (Russian Energy Ministry / industry) | drone-warfare (20 Mt/y rated) | 300 to 420 kb/d (drone-warfare (20 Mt/y), 2026-05-05) |
| 2025-11-18 | Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | refinery | Struck, suspending crude processing. (Ukraine (via Reuters)) | Rosneft plant suspended crude processing after the strike, sources said. (industry sources (Reuters)) | Reuters (sources: crude processing suspended) | 100 to 400 kb/d (Reuters / drone-warfare, 2025-11-18) |
| 2025-11-06 | Volgograd refinery (Lukoil) | refinery | Struck the refinery; General Staff confirmed explosions and fire. (Ukraine General Staff (via RBC-Ukraine)) | Governor Bocharov confirmed a fire in Volgograd's Krasnoarmeysk district (refinery site); CDU-5 (66.7 kb/d) and hydrocracker damaged per sources. (Volgograd governor + sources (Reuters)) | Reuters (CDU-5 + hydrocracker, plant halted) | 67 to 280 kb/d (Reuters (CDU-5 66.7 kb/d; 13.7 Mt/y plant), 2025-11-06) |
| 2025-08-28 | Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft, Samara) | refinery | Struck, damaging both primary refining units and secondary units days after restart. (Ukraine (via Wikipedia)) | Rosneft plant hit; damage to both primary units acknowledged by industry sources. (industry sources (Wikipedia)) | Wikipedia (primary + secondary unit damage) | 100 to 200 kb/d (drone-warfare, 2025-08-28) |
| 2025-08-07 | Afipsky refinery (Krasnodar) | refinery | Overnight drone strike set a fire at the gas-condensate processing unit. (Ukraine (via Wikipedia)) | Regional crisis center said drone debris ignited a gas condensate unit; fire out by 08:21 local. (Krasnodar crisis center) | Wikipedia citing regional officials | 40 to 130 kb/d (drone-warfare, 2025-08-07) |
| 2024-04-28 | Tuapse refinery (Rosneft, Black Sea) | refinery | Drone attack caused a major fire, halting operations. (Ukraine military (via RFE/RL)) | Attack on the Black Sea oil terminal reported; fire extinguished. (Russian emergency services) | RFE/RL (Russian officials) | 100 to 240 kb/d (drone-warfare/Reuters, 2024-04-28) |
| 2024-03-13 | Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | refinery | Struck Ryazan refinery, setting it ablaze and damaging units equal to ~70% of intake capacity. (Ukraine (via drone-warfare)) | Governor confirmed a drone strike caused a fire; no capacity figures given. (Ryazan governor) | Reuters via drone-warfare | 200 to 400 kb/d (drone-warfare/Reuters, 2024-03-13) |
| 2024-03-12 | Lukoil NORSI refinery (Kstovo) | refinery | Struck NORSI, damaging the main CDU-1 crude distillation unit and halting at least half its processing. (Ukraine General Staff / drone-warfare) | Aerial attack reported over the region; refinery operational status disputed. (Russian MoD / Lukoil) | drone-warfare (Reuters tally) | 0 to 170 kb/d (drone-warfare/Reuters, 2024-03-12) |
| 2024-01-21 | NOVATEK Ust-Luga condensate terminal | export terminal | Struck Ust-Luga gas condensate terminal; SBU-linked source said a major fire. (Ukraine security service (via Wikipedia)) | Two storage facilities and a pumping station damaged; fire at the terminal. (Russian authorities / Leningrad Oblast) | Wikipedia (attributed to Russian officials) | n/a |
What to watch next is whether Ukrainian strikes keep targeting refineries or shift toward terminals and crude export. Keep an eye on the distillate crack and on Black Sea tanker rates and diesel prices after drone strikes, plus ARA and European gasoil stocks for confirmation that the product tightness is persisting in the physical barrel, not just the futures print. If the pressure moves to the export barrel, the disruptive signal migrates back into crude and product cracks mean-revert, which would be the opposite of the current product-first regime.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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