Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

A wire basket of groceries (bread, milk, bananas, cans, eggs, rice) and an empty wallet on a counter, with the Federal Reserve building visible through a window in the background.

Macro

Inflation at 4.2%: What the Fed's Next Move Means for You

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 10, 20265 MIN READ

Collage of an oil refinery, the Federal Reserve building, an oil tanker, a large pipeline, and groceries, under a smoky sky.

Macro

Iran Conflict & Hot Inflation Put Fed in a Corner

Iran re-escalation sends oil surging and traps the Fed between hot 4.2% inflation and a weakening labor market. What the July 8 strikes mean for rates.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 9, 20265 MIN READ

Federal Reserve building with neoclassical architecture and large columns, illuminated by late afternoon sun. Two blurred figures and cars in the foreground.

Macro

What the Fed's Pause Means for Your Portfolio Right Now

The Federal Reserve has pressed pause on rate cuts for the rest of 2026. Here's what that actually means for your savings, investments, and overall portfolio, explained in plain terms.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 8, 20261 MIN READ

Three businessmen in suits look at smartphones in front of a classical building, possibly a stock exchange, with other people and camera crew nearby.

Macro

Jobs Miss Meets Record Dow: Global Markets in Triage

Dow hit a record 52,900 on July 6 even as June payrolls missed badly at 57,000. Gold holds above $4,100. Nasdaq falls as AI chip stocks extend losses.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 7, 20262 MIN READ

People walk on steps of a classical building with large columns, industrial refinery with tall towers and tanks in the hazy background

Macro

Fed Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Outlook to 3.6% as War Premium Lingers

The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6%, effectively ruling out rate cuts this year. Gold surged 2% as the Iran War geopolitical risk premium returns to precious metals.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 6, 20263 MIN READ