Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
Brent is trading up 1.96% at $94.58 and WTI up 1.33% at $87.68 on Thursday after Trump said the US doesn't need a deal with Iran and claimed control of the Strait. Who gains, who pays, and what breaks the curve next.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
A confirmed drone strike at Russia's Ust-Luga port and Black Sea tensions pushed wheat prices toward two-year highs; WEAT rose 2.02% to $22.18.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Saudi Arabia told OPEC its crude output rose about 26% in October to 10.563 million barrels per day, the highest since the Iran war began, while OPEC+ output neared pre-war levels with the demand forecast held steady. The oil price and supply read, dated and sourced.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Monitoring channels reported a Ukrainian strike on Russia's Ust-Luga Baltic export hub overnight Nov 10-11, a claim Russian officials had not confirmed as of writing. Ust-Luga is the sanctioned crude-and-condensate and product loading point for the Baltic, so a hit there is an export-capacity event with crack and shadow-fleet-loading implications.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
The next strike looks less likely, but the blockade remains. Why crude can move in hours while the gasoline price moves on another clock.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Brent slid about 7% and WTI fell more than $7 after Trump signalled fresh US strikes on Iran are unlikely, extending the crude war-risk premium's unwind. WTI trades near $86.85 with Brent near $92.62, while physical Murban still holds near $99.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Trump confirmed fresh limited strikes on Iran on Friday, the first since the midterms, and CENTCOM has now extended its blockade to Iran's overland and Caspian routes. Crude re-enters a war-risk bid even as the Qatar mediation and the peace-deal discount pull the other way on WTI and Brent.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
WTI fell roughly 16.5% to $86.99 and Brent about 20% to $93.91 in four sessions, unwinding the Oct 30 conflict premium even as Ryazan and Qeshm headlines stay live. Here is what the sink flags for fresh longs.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
The conflict premium built since mid-October came apart in one session: a Democratic sweep read as a mandate to de-escalate, plus Iran's own no-to-war signal, cut crude more than 8%. WTI sits at $87.74, Brent at $94.43, and the trade that carried oil above $106 on November 3 has flipped.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Ukraine's resumed campaign struck the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl for a third time on Nov 3, and governor Mikhail Yevrayev confirmed the damage and the fire. The plant's roughly 280,000-320,000 barrels per day of refining capacity is back on the risk list while crude holds a geopolitical bid near $96.15 WTI and $103.72 Brent.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island and three tankers hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz push Brent to $107 and WTI above $106, reversing a 7.6% slide.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
WTI crude fell about 6% below $100 and Brent slid toward $105 in Monday trading as reports of a draft U.S.-Iran peace proposal and an initial nod from Iran's Supreme Leader drained the war-risk premium built up through October. Here is who pays, who gains, and why prior peace hopes have faded before.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst