Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Macro

The Yen Carry Trade in 2026: Positioning, Unwind Risk, and the US Market Transmission Channel

Speculative yen short positions remain near multi-year extremes at 122,663 contracts net short as of July 14, even after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0 percent in June 2026, the highest level since 1995. A documented precedent from August 2024 shows how a modest tightening move in Tokyo can transmit to US equity selloffs within hours. The trigger map for the next unwind is live.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 22, 202620 MIN READ

A man in a suit walks towards the imposing, columned entrance of the Federal Reserve building bathed in warm morning light.

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Macro

Fed at the Crossroads: June CPI Drop vs. Sticky Core Before July 29

June CPI fell to 3.5% annually, the sharpest monthly deceleration in six years. Core PCE sits at 3.41%. The divergence between what the headlines say and what the Fed actually watches is what makes July 29 a live meeting.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 22, 20268 MIN READ

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Macro

Fed Hold, June CPI Surprise, and the September Rate Path

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting even as June CPI fell sharply to 3.5% YoY on collapsing energy prices. The path to September hinges on whether the disinflation holds.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 21, 202610 MIN READ

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Macro

Oil at $90, a Flattening Yield Curve, and the Stagflation Question

US-Iran military escalation has pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel, reintroducing a stagflation risk premium into a market already navigating tentative yield curve normalization. The 10-2 Treasury spread sits at +37 basis points as of July 17, per FRED data. Gold is the primary beneficiary. Big tech earnings this week are the near-term binary.

Jul 21, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

Iran Re-Escalation, Fed Hike Probability Rising, and the July 29 FOMC Preview

WTI crude is back at $84.26, nine of eighteen FOMC members are now projecting a 2026 rate hike, and markets price 53% odds of a September move. Here is what July 28-29 actually decides.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 20, 202610 MIN READ

Illustration showing a balancing scale. On one side, a building resembling the Fed leans on a cloud dropping rain. On the other, a golden oil tanker floats in water, carrying a large golden oil droplet.

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Macro

Fed vs. Iran Energy Shock: What July 28-29 Means

June CPI fell to 3.5% on July 14. That same day, oil surged 9% as US strikes reignited hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve heads into July 28-29 with disinflation data pointing one way and a supply shock pointing the other.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 17, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

Fed at a Crossroads: What -0.4% CPI and 57K Jobs Mean for Rate Policy

June CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2020, while NFP came in at 57K against a 115K consensus. The data puts the Fed in an impossible position between a softening labor market and inflation that remains 150 basis points above target.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 16, 202610 MIN READ

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Macro

The CPI Relief Is an Optical Illusion: What Warsh and Hormuz Mean for July

June CPI fell to 3.5%, but the ceasefire already collapsed. Gasoline is back at $3.86. Warsh gave no ground at Congress. What the data really means for July.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 15, 202611 MIN READ

A lone person ascends the grand steps of the Federal Reserve building bathed in warm morning light, American flags flanking the entrance.

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Macro

CPI at 3.9% and the Fed Rate-Cut Paradox: What the June Data Really Means

June CPI tracks at 3.9% as gasoline prices ease, but core inflation at 2.85% refuses to break. The FOMC is trapped between a softening headline and a hawkish yield curve bear-steepening at the 30-year.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 14, 202611 MIN READ

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Macro

Stagflation Risk: June CPI Preview and Fed Policy at a Crossroads

June CPI drops July 14 as Fed Chair Warsh testifies. With CPI at 4.2% and only 57K payrolls in June, the US faces classic stagflationary tension. Premium pre-event analysis.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20267 MIN READ

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Macro

Yield Curve Re-Normalization: Fixed Income in a Stagflationary Cycle

The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread has returned to +36 basis points, ending a prolonged inversion. In a stagflationary environment defined by 4.2% CPI and 57,000 payrolls, where should bond investors position?

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20267 MIN READ

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Macro

The Fort Knox Audit That Wasn't: What Treasury Documents Actually Say

In February 2025, the most famous vault in America became the subject of an extraordinary public spectacle. President Donald Trump declared he would send his...

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 11, 20269 MIN READ