Fed Hold, June CPI Surprise, and the September Rate Path
June's consumer price report gave the Federal Reserve the number it has been waiting eighteen months to see. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month decline since April 2020, pulling the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core CPI printed 2.6% year-over-year, well under the 2.9% consensus and the softest reading since before the tariff-driven price surge began in early 2026. The Fed, per its June 17 decision, did not flinch. Key Takeaways The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting on June 17, removing prior easing-bias language from its statement. June CPI fell to 3.5% YoY (from 4.2% in May), driven by a 5.7% collapse in…
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