Iran Re-Escalation, Fed Hike Probability Rising, and the July 29 FOMC Preview
The macro picture on July 20 is harder to read than the headline numbers suggest, and that is precisely the problem for the Federal Reserve. WTI crude is back at $84.26 per barrel, up 14% in one month and 28% in three months, after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed over the weekend. The June CPI disinflationary impulse, the best monthly print since April 2020, was built almost entirely on a 9.7% gasoline decline that is now fully reversed. And nine of eighteen FOMC members, up from zero just six weeks ago, are penciling in a rate increase before year-end. Markets are pricing a 53% probability of a September hike as of this morning. Key Takeaways WTI crude rose to $84.26 on July 20, up 14.09% i…
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