Fed vs. Iran Energy Shock: What July 28-29 Means
June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year on July 14, the sharpest single-month deceleration since the Fed began its hiking cycle, and on that same day oil surged 9% as US military strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and hostilities reignited around the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve, heading into its July 28-29 FOMC meeting, now faces a data setup that argues for easing and a geopolitical shock that argues for caution, and the institution's own history suggests it will choose caution. Key Takeaways June CPI fell to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May, with core CPI at a two-year low of 2.6% YoY and a flat 0.0% monthly print, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (July 14, 2026). US strikes on Ir…
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