Fed at the Crossroads: June CPI Drop vs. Sticky Core Before July 29
June CPI came in at -0.4% month-over-month, the sharpest single-month decline since April 2020, pulling the annual headline rate from 4.2% to 3.5%. On paper, this is the kind of print that opens rate-cut conversations. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh called it "positive relative to expectations." He also said, without ambiguity, that declaring victory is "not my view." That gap between the data and the institutional response is exactly what makes the July 28-29 FOMC meeting a live event in a way it has not been for months. Key Takeaways June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, driven entirely by a 5.7% decline in the energy index (BLS, July 14, 2026). Cor…
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