The Yen Carry Trade in 2026: Positioning, Unwind Risk, and the US Market Transmission Channel
The Yen Carry Trade in 2026: Positioning, Unwind Risk, and the US Market Transmission Channel What the Evidence Shows Speculative investors held a net short position of 122,663 contracts in Japanese yen futures as of July 14, 2026, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report. That figure has been climbing since late April, when it stood at 75,100 contracts: up 63 percent in less than three months, directly through a period in which the Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75 percent while Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh kept the Fed funds target at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The rate differential that makes borrowing yen cheap and inve…
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