Alex Navarro

Argentina's Senate Makes the BCRA Chief Easier to Remove Than the President

Senators lowered a proposed two thirds of both houses removal bar to a Senate absolute majority before passing the central bank charter rewrite 46 to 22.

Commerce Moves to Choke Off Polysilicon Stockpiling Before Section 232 Tariffs Land December 4

A temporary Commerce rule flags importers whose polysilicon volumes spike against their own trade history, turning three months of import data into a real-time filter ahead of new tariffs and minimum import prices.

Saudi Arabia Quietly Walked Away From China's mBridge, and the Numbers Show Why It Still Matters

SAMA confirmed to the FT its mBridge proof-of-concept ended 13 May 2025 and it is no longer a participating member, following the BIS's October 2024 exit.

BOJ Hikes to 1.25%: Dollar-Yen Carry Trade Narrowing Rate Gap

The Bank of Japan hiked to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, yet the yen fell. Here is why the 275-basis-point gap with US rates keeps the dollar-yen carry trade alive.

OFAC Reopens the Lukoil Sale Window for an Eleventh Time, and the Legal Fine Print Hasn't Moved Since November

OFAC's General License 131J extends the Lukoil International sale-negotiation window, with an October 22, 2026 expiry date, but the fine print still withholds actual authorization to close.

OFAC Delays PDVSA Bond Trading to Nov. 5; Russia-Linked Names Quietly Cut From SDN

General License 5Z is the seventh extension of a 2018 authorization that has never taken effect. It shipped in the same release as two Russia-related delistings that carried no explanation, continuing a pattern Treasury has not addressed publicly since March.

The Hormuz Shock Reaches Costco's Oil Aisle: A Live Chokepoint-to-Retail Transmission Case

Costco is capping how many bottles of Kirkland Signature synthetic motor oil a member can buy in a week, the retail endpoint of a four-month transmission from the Strait of Hormuz shut-ins to a warehouse shelf.

China's Rare-Earth Truce Clock Runs Out November 27. Japan's Supply Chain Already Shows What Comes Next.

A one-paragraph suspension buried in a MOFCOM announcement is the only thing standing between the US supply chain and the gallium, germanium and antimony restrictions Beijing imposed in December 2024. It expires November 27. Japan's customs data already shows what happens when a parallel restriction snaps back into place.

Treasury Flips the Default Setting on Iran Sanctions Exceptions

OFAC's September 10 notice pairs a shift to presumption of denial for Iran specific licenses with new terrorism-financing designations and a $1.43 million enforcement settlement. Together the three actions mark a policy-lever change in how the sanctions machinery processes exceptions, not just another name on the SDN list.

Project Agorá Completes First Real-Value Settlement Test on Tokenized Central Bank Reserves

Project Agorá, the BIS and IIF backed wholesale tokenization platform spanning eight central banks including five reserve currency issuers, settled roughly CHF 800,000 across 17 real-value scenarios in July 2026. Unlike mBridge, which the BIS exited in 2024, Agorá tokenizes existing central bank reserves rather than issuing new digital currency.

Treasury Opens Venezuela's Telecom Market to US Firms Even as It Keeps Adding Names to the Sanctions List

Treasury Opens Venezuela's Telecom Market to US Firms Even as It Keeps Adding Names to the Sanctions List Two licenses issued August 21 let US companies supply and negotiate telecom deals in Venezuela, the same week OFAC added a new blocked entity tied to the broader Venezuela program The Finding

OFAC Purges 84 Entries From the SDN List: What Bessent's Doctrine Shift Means for Banks and Cross-Border Corridors

The U.S. Treasury's second tranche of SDN delistings in two months is more than housekeeping. Secretary Bessent has rewritten the metric by which Washington measures sanctions success, and the compliance baseline for every bank screening cross-border payments is shifting with it.

OFAC's Aug. 7 Iran Crypto Sweep Reveals a Five-Jurisdiction Shell Pattern: Dubai, Hong Kong, Georgia, Poland, Singapore

Russia's Crypto Rails Open September 1 as EU Sanctions Close the Exits: Inside the State-Level Collision

Russia's new digital-asset law legalizes crypto for cross-border trade settlement starting September 1, 2026, while the EU's 21st sanctions package has already put transaction bans on 14 crypto platforms across six jurisdictions and built a new legal tool to blacklist entire countries. Two state-level systems are converging on the same infrastructure at the same moment, and the record shows which one moved first.

OFAC's Clock Is Ticking on Lukoil's $22 Billion International Portfolio

The U.S. Treasury's sanctions licensing window for negotiations over Lukoil International GmbH expires August 22, 2026, with the Carlyle Group's acquisition still awaiting OFAC's closing authorization. Nine months of 29-to-45-day rolling extensions have kept Western counterparties legally in the deal process, but the series has now shortened back to its original 29-day minimum, and OFAC retains the explicit right to revoke at any time.

Iran Built a Toll Booth at Hormuz: OFAC Just Tore It Down

On July 29, 2026, the U.S. Treasury designated two newly created Iranian firms charging commercial vessels mandatory 'war risk insurance' to transit the Strait of Hormuz, funneling premiums back to the IRGC. The scheme reveals how Iran has moved beyond ad-hoc extortion toward a durable financial architecture for chokepoint monetization.

OFAC Clears 84 From Sanctions List and Opens a Digital Exit Ramp: What It Means for Banks and Designated Parties

Treasury's second round of SDN modernization removed 84 individuals and entities on July 27 while simultaneously launching a formal online portal for delisting petitions. The move codifies a structural shift in how OFAC defines sanctions success, and forces compliance officers to update their screening logic immediately.

Iran's Gold-Crypto Pipeline: OFAC Exposes the Physical-to-Digital Settlement Layer Behind the Tala Token

U.S. Treasury's July 24 action against the DotOne conglomerate exposed how Iran-minted gold bars were tokenized, routed through a sanctioned exchange, and cleared across UAE and Turkish fintech nodes to reach international counterparties outside SWIFT. The architecture represents a maturation point in Iran's sanctions-evasion infrastructure: no longer ad-hoc oil barters, but a vertically integrated commodity-to-crypto settlement layer.

Both Gulf Corridors Under Fire: The Chokepoint Arithmetic Washington Hoped Would Not Add Up

Houthi forces declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia this week and struck two tankers transiting the Red Sea, closing the very bypass route that markets treated as a pressure valve for the near-fully blocked Strait of Hormuz. Combined non-Hormuz pipeline bypass capacity amounts to roughly 8.7 mb/d against Hormuz's pre-war 20 mb/d throughput. Meanwhile, Washington's threat to pay shipping damages from frozen Iranian money runs into a structural problem: the law that freezes the assets does not authorize seizing them.

BIS Reclassifies UAE to A:5: How a Gulf Pivot Rewires US Defense and Energy Export Architecture

On July 10, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security rewrote the rules governing US exports to the UAE, elevating the Gulf state to Country Group A:5, a tier previously reserved for formal treaty allies, and creating a new entity-specific approval framework that channels AI chips, military hardware, and oil-field equipment to approved Gulf institutions. The action formalizes a two-year strategic convergence linking the Iran campaign, a $1.4 trillion investment commitment, and the world's largest planned AI data center into a single regulatory instrument. No Gulf state has ever achieved this classification.

The Yen Carry Trade in 2026: Positioning, Unwind Risk, and the US Market Transmission Channel

Speculative yen short positions remain near multi-year extremes at 122,663 contracts net short as of July 14, even after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0 percent in June 2026, the highest level since 1995. A documented precedent from August 2024 shows how a modest tightening move in Tokyo can transmit to US equity selloffs within hours. The trigger map for the next unwind is live.

Two Worlds, One Ledger: How States Are Building Crypto Rails to Bypass Dollar Settlement

From Russia's new foreign-trade crypto law to the $55 billion mBridge platform, states are constructing parallel settlement rails outside the dollar system. A documented survey of who built what, how much has moved, and what the regulatory response looks like on both sides.

Senate Builds the Architecture of Pressure: How the Sanctioning Russia Act Reshapes the Global Oil Trade

A revised Senate bill would authorize the president to impose 100% tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian crude, targeting China and India at a moment when both nations have deepened their dependence on discounted Russian barrels. Whether the bill passes or stalls, its mechanism is now architecturally in play -- and the rerouting calculations across shadow fleets, rupee settlements, and Ural discounts are already shifting.

US-Iran Conflict Impact on India: Oil Import Costs Explode, Rupee Tests Record Lows, and Gold Demand Surges

India's crude import basket hit $157.04 per barrel on March 23, 2026, a record high, before crashing back to $81.62 by mid-July as the US-Iran war moved through distinct phases. The rupee is now testing all-time lows near 96.84 per dollar, RBI reserves have fallen roughly $60 billion since February, and domestic gold demand surged 43% year-on-year in the second quarter. This is a flow-of-funds investigation tracing exactly how the conflict transmitted into India's energy economics, currency pressure, and safe-haven buying.