China's Rare-Earth Truce Clock Runs Out November 27. Japan's Supply Chain Already Shows What Comes Next.
Key takeaways China's Ministry of Commerce suspended its December 2024 ban on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard-material exports to the United States on November 9, 2025. That suspension, issued under MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025, expires November 27, 2026.
Western warehouse prices for the affected materials already trade at more than double their Chinese domestic price, a gap that has persisted through 2026 rather than closing, evidence that markets are pricing continued restriction risk even during the suspension window.
A parallel, geographically narrower restriction on rare-earth shipments to Japan, imposed in January 2026 over a Taiwan-related diplomatic dispute, cut Japan'…
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