Stagflation Risk: June CPI Preview and Fed Policy at a Crossroads
The June Consumer Price Index data drops tomorrow, July 14, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh steps before Congress on the same day. The timing could not be sharper. With headline CPI running at 4.2% year-over-year as of May and the US economy adding only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June against a 110,000 consensus, the Federal Reserve faces what is historically its most difficult policy environment: prices rising while growth cools. That is the textbook definition of stagflation, and the data right now fits the pattern. Key Takeaways June CPI data releases July 14; May's 4.2% year-over-year print was the highest since April 2023, driven by a 23.54% surge in energy prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz…
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