Oil at $90, a Flattening Yield Curve, and the Stagflation Question

Brent crude crossed $90 per barrel last week and has held there. That number matters less as a price level than as a signal: the US reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports has moved geopolitical risk from a background variable into the foreground of every macro framework. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil supply daily, and analysts are now putting $120-$150 per barrel Brent in their scenario decks for a partial or full disruption. Whether that scenario materializes or not, its reappearance changes how the market prices every other asset. Key Takeaways Brent crude crossed $90/barrel on US-Iran military escalation, with sell-side Hormuz disruption scenarios prici…