Consumer Confidence Rebounds to 91.7 in October as Expectations Stay Soft: Conference Board Report

Consumer confidence came back to life in October, but only on the surface. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100), a rare monthly gain that returned the headline gauge to June levels on stronger consumer views of both the current economy and the months ahead.

The headline still hides a split worth reading closely. The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers judge today's business and labor conditions, jumped 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index, which tracks the six-month outlook for income, business, and jobs, climbed a smaller 6.9 points to 72.6, and that recovery only partially reversed three straight monthly declines. In short, consumers feel better about right now and only slightly less worried about what comes next.

Related reading: Consumer Confidence October 2026: Index Jumps to 91.7 as Gasoline Eases.

The Conference Board publishes the index once a month at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday, drawing on its monthly Consumer Confidence Survey. The survey is an online sample conducted on the Board's behalf by the market-research firm Toluna, using a consumer panel of more than 36 million people. Respondents assess current business conditions and job availability, then give a six-month outlook for business conditions, job prospects, and their own income. Their answers feed two sub-indexes, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, both standardized to a 1985 base of 100, and the two combine into the headline Consumer Confidence Index. The October reading reflects responses collected from October 1 through October 21.

The two numbers that matter most for the outlook are the headline level and the distance between the two gauges. By itself, 91.7 is a clear step up from September's 84.2, which the Board revised slightly higher. The gap between the sub-indexes tells a different story. Expectations sit at 72.6 while the present situation reads 120.4, a 47.8-point separation. Expectations-led softness of that kind has historically been the early warning: households that feel secure today but expect the economy to cool within six months tend to stop committing to big purchases first. An expectations index stuck well below the 80 reading that Conference Board analysts have long treated as a recession warning line, even while the present situation stays strong, is the pattern economists watch for the shift from slower growth to contraction.

For the broader framework, see our Fed policy coverage.

Related reading: Fed rate path odds: Kalshi's December ladder prices a 25 bps hike at 79 percent after consumer confidence hits 91.7.

The softness shows up in the spending intentions that matter to retailers. Consumers dialed back plans to buy durable goods across the board in October, with expected purchases of everything from smartphones to laptops and tablets pulling back by more than 1%. Planned spending on services over the next six months was broadly lower, with live entertainment the main exception, and expected purchases of autos and homes both slipped on a six-month moving-average basis. Vacation plans also cooled: 43.3% of consumers expect to take a trip in the next six months, down from a revised 44.2% in September. For discretionary retailers and rate-sensitive corners of autos, housing, and big-ticket electronics, that is a guarded signal heading into the holiday quarter.

For the Federal Reserve, the release lands as a modest caution flag rather than a decisive input. Consumers still expected higher interest rates over the next twelve months, and their twelve-month inflation expectations, while lower, remain elevated at 5.8%. That backdrop argues against an early cut and keeps the December meeting's rate decision in play. The more telling detail is what households say about spending: surveys show less willingness to commit to services and durable goods, which is exactly the channel through which confidence turns into demand. A resilient present situation supports the case that the economy can absorb a restrictive stance, while the wide expectations gap suggests the tightening may already be working its way through household budgets.

Related reading: August PCE Cools to 3.0% Core as Consumer Spending Jumps 0.9%.

Not everyone reads the report as a warning. The rebound to June levels is genuine, the present situation at 120.4 is among the firmer readings of the past several months, and consumers improved their assessment of income prospects, with net expectations for household income rising to +6.7%. The labor piece is constructive too: the share of consumers calling jobs plentiful rose to 26.7%, and the employment differential improved to +5.3%. The bull case is that the US consumer, the main engine of growth, is still standing and still confident about today.

The bear case rests on where the strength is concentrated. Confidence among older generations continues to trail the under-35 cohort sharply, and on a six-month average only consumers under 35 and households earning $100,000 or more reported higher confidence. Most consumers still call a US recession over the next year somewhat likely, and the write-in comments keep centering on prices, groceries, and fuel costs. The Conference Board's senior economist, Fergus McCormick, put it directly: despite October's gain, confidence remained on the long-term downward trend of the past few years, with higher price levels and persistent inflation eroding purchasing power.

Related reading: FOMC October 2026 Decision Prices an 85.1% Hold as Brent Sits at $113.

The reading that matters into year-end is whether the expectations gauge keeps recovering or stalls, and whether holiday-season spending plans firm up from their current caution. The next Conference Board release arrives Tuesday, November 24, giving markets one more read before the Fed's December decision. If expectations stay parked in the 70s against a 120-plus present situation, the widening gap is the signal to watch, because where households expect the economy to go, spending usually follows.

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