FOMC October 2026 Decision Prices an 85.1% Hold as Brent Sits at $113

The week that built toward the October 28 FOMC left one number doing more work than any other: 85.1 percent probability, the market-implied read that TokenPost reported on October 22, that the Committee holds its policy rate unchanged. The December 9 meeting, not the October one, is where the real risk sits. Both of those readouts trace back to a single input, and it is not in the jobs data or the dot plot.

It is Brent crude, which settled at $113.17 a barrel on Thursday after strikes on Saudi Arabian targets that the Houthis said they carried out against the Riyadh Defence Ministry and an Aramco facility in Yanbu, albeit with no Saudi confirmation, and a fresh flare in US-Iran tension. The e…