Daily coverage · David Morales
Gold, silver, oil, copper and agriculture: supply, demand and price levels.
Gold trades about 26% below its January record as central banks keep buying and the LBMA forecast still points near $5,013. Hawkish Fed odds are the cap. Here is what separates a base from a breakdown.
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Brent topped $101 and WTI crossed $90 Wednesday as a system forecast to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 sits over offshore fields that produce about 15% of U.S. crude. The rally is broader than the weather.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Ukraine's drones hit Russia's largest Moscow-region oil depot overnight, a distribution-node strike on a 51% refining-capacity claim and a diesel-export ban that runs to Oct 31. The transmission is cracks, not crude: Brent $100.70, WTI $89.59, a near-$11 Brent-WTI spread and a $20-25 war-risk premium. Both scenarios, $108-120 and $95, with the ranges, in the premium deep dive.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold holds the $4,110-4,160 band despite a 24-year-high 10-year yield near 5.31%. The reason is a positioning split: hedge funds cut 2.7M oz in September while ETFs added 1.7M oz to a four-year high.
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Brent holds triple digits near $101 as the G7's 100M barrel release and recovering Gulf exports meet a $20-25 war-risk premium in the crude curve.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
A 29K September payrolls miss cut October Fed hike odds to 18-22%, and gold held $4,110. Here are the levels that decide the next leg.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
G7 and IEA agree to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic reserves over four months, front-loading diesel. What it means for cracks, refiners and pump prices.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Treasury sanctioned the A7 Network and proposed a rule barring U.S. transfers through its sub-agents, hitting a $91.5B Iran oil payment web.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold holds a $4,100-4,300 range into Friday's payrolls as October-hike odds approach 51%. Levels, the physical bid, and what a strong or weak print means.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Oil jumped 4% to Brent $102.31 on Thursday. That was not a crude event. It was a refined-product event: Russia's diesel export ban, China's product-export halt, and US distillate stocks 14% below the five-year average.
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Iran sanctions now reach the auto, rail and steel networks under E.O. 13902. See how the wider OFAC net and secondary-sanctions risk show up in oil and Brent.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Oil eased as Gulf crude exports recovered ahead of OPEC+. Brent slipped near $97, WTI near $89. Diesel futures stayed firm as Russia extended its export ban.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst