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Diesel is the story: Russia and China cut fuel, not crude

Published October 2, 202620 min read
A capped fuel-loading hose hangs idle in front of storage tanks at an industrial depot.
Diesel-loading infrastructure puts the focus on refined-fuel supply rather than crude production. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Oil jumped more than 4% on Thursday, taking Brent to $102.31 and WTI to $92.87. If that reads as a crude story, it is the wrong way to read this market. The move was a refined-product event wearing a crude headline.

Key Takeaways Brent settled $102.31 on Thursday, up 4.4%, but the squeeze is in middle distillates, not flat crude. US distillate stocks sit 14% below the five-year average after a 2.3 million barrel draw. Russia's diesel, marine fuel and gasoil export ban now runs to 31 October; Putin says no global diesel until sanctions lift. China suspended refined-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, removing a swing supplier of diesel and gasoline. Crude lines are open, product lines…

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